polyradar — public track record
Every AI forecast we make on Polymarket events, scored against real outcomes. Nothing is edited after the fact: each day's forecasts are published as CSV and their SHA-256 is posted to our Telegram channel the same day.
Updated: 2026-09-24 14:14 UTC
Accuracy by topic
Brier score: mean squared error of probabilities, lower is better. Market = mid price at forecast time.
No resolved markets yet — the record is building up.
Open signals (latest forecast per market)
| Topic | Market | Market | Us | Side | Edge after fees, pp | ⏳ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎬 Culture & tech | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | 50% | 90% | YES | 37 | 2026-10-01 |
| 💵 Economy | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? | 2% | 36% | YES | 33 | 2026-09-29 |
| 💵 Economy | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | 47% | 14% | NO | 31 | 2026-10-15 |
| 🎬 Culture & tech | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026? | 35% | 2% | NO | 30 | 2026-09-30 |
| 💵 Economy | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in August? | 7% | 33% | YES | 25 | 2026-09-29 |
| 💵 Economy | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August? | 36% | 4% | NO | 22 | 2026-09-29 |
| 🎬 Culture & tech | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026? | 62% | 85% | YES | 21 | 2026-09-30 |
| 🌍 Geopolitics | Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 45% | 25% | NO | 20 | 2026-09-30 |
| 💵 Economy | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30? | 27% | 3% | NO | 19 | 2026-10-11 |
| 💵 Economy | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | 44% | 65% | YES | 18 | 2026-10-16 |
| 🎬 Culture & tech | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | 22% | 2% | NO | 18 | 2026-10-01 |
| 🎬 Culture & tech | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours? | 22% | 5% | NO | 16 | 2026-10-01 |
| 🌍 Geopolitics | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 57% | 41% | NO | 16 | 2026-10-04 |
| 🏛 Politics | Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? | 80% | 62% | NO | 15 | 2026-10-04 |
| 💵 Economy | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in August? | 18% | 1% | NO | 12 | 2026-09-30 |
| 🌍 Geopolitics | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 30, 2026? | 90% | 75% | NO | 11 | 2026-09-30 |
| 💵 Economy | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in August? | 14% | 2% | NO | 11 | 2026-09-29 |
| 🌍 Geopolitics | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 42% | 54% | YES | 10 | 2026-10-04 |
Daily runs and fingerprints
| Date | Forecasts | SHA-256 | CSV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 14:09 UTC | 19 | 651bf756b56c6be6e206075107b6999dcc972b06f3973324309faa15f557a664 | CSV |
| 2026-09-24 06:03 UTC | 145 | 1c21b08fd3bf12d3ea2763ad7d941f9fa061ed1d5dd3291b3a6f6536811f574d | CSV |
| 2026-09-24 05:35 UTC | 152 | eb5f981d71a1b14099e07c1a98bb725412cc41946415ce44a25c65125cd3e881 | CSV |
| 2026-09-23 22:39 UTC | 44 | 04386cd168fb0252c1cbfd5455a86a21f0d4bfdc6e7bea12034677aefc392611 | CSV |