polyradar — публичный трек-рекорд
Все ИИ-прогнозы по событиям Polymarket и их реальные исходы. Ничего не правится задним числом: прогнозы дня публикуются в CSV, а их SHA-256 в тот же день уходит в наш Telegram-канал.
Обновлено: 2026-10-02 14:04 UTC
Точность по темам
Брайер — средняя квадратичная ошибка вероятностей, меньше = лучше. Рынок = середина спреда в момент прогноза.
| Тема | Закрыто | Брайер (мы) | Брайер (рынок) | Лучше рынка? | Сигналов | Выиграло | Бумажный PnL / контракт, после комиссии |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎬 Культура и техно | 210 | 0.0259 | 0.0291 | да | 31 | 25 | +4.53 $ |
| 💵 Экономика | 209 | 0.0964 | 0.0790 | нет | 29 | 18 | +2.84 $ |
| 🌍 Геополитика | 48 | 0.0610 | 0.1057 | да | 12 | 10 | +3.36 $ |
| 🏛 Политика | 1 | 0.0004 | 0.0056 | да | 0 | 0 | +0.00 $ |
| 🌦 Погода | 508 | 0.1045 | 0.0739 | нет | 165 | 55 | -9.69 $ |
Калибровка
Когда мы говорим X%, как часто это сбывается? В идеале столбцы совпадают.
| Наша вероятность | Прогнозов | Средняя предсказанная | Фактическая доля YES |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 583 | 2% | 3% |
| 10–20% | 114 | 15% | 22% |
| 20–30% | 94 | 24% | 21% |
| 30–40% | 63 | 35% | 32% |
| 40–50% | 26 | 44% | 31% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 55% | 29% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65% | 70% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74% | 69% |
| 80–90% | 14 | 85% | 93% |
| 90–100% | 39 | 95% | 97% |
Закрытые сигналы
Сигнал = преимущество ≥ 10 п.п. после спреда и комиссии тейкера Polymarket. Проигрыши тоже здесь.
| Дата | Тема | Рынок | Рынок | Мы | Сторона | Вход | Исход | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 1? | 17% | 0% | NO | 0.84 | NO | +0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 1? | 32% | 2% | NO | 0.69 | NO | +0.30 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 1? | 32% | 17% | NO | 0.69 | YES | -0.70 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 1? | 16% | 42% | YES | 0.17 | NO | -0.18 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 1? | 3% | 32% | YES | 0.04 | NO | -0.04 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1? | 50% | 37% | NO | 0.51 | NO | +0.48 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on October 1? | 8% | 24% | YES | 0.09 | NO | -0.09 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 1? | 56% | 29% | NO | 0.45 | YES | -0.46 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 1? | 0% | 20% | YES | 0.00 | NO | -0.00 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 1? | 32% | 10% | NO | 0.69 | NO | +0.30 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1? | 60% | 20% | NO | 0.41 | YES | -0.42 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | 8% | 26% | YES | 0.09 | NO | -0.09 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on October 1? | 1% | 23% | YES | 0.02 | NO | -0.02 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on October 1? | 16% | 1% | NO | 0.85 | NO | +0.14 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on October 1? | 39% | 5% | NO | 0.62 | YES | -0.63 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on October 1? | 34% | 15% | NO | 0.66 | NO | +0.33 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on October 1? | 13% | 25% | YES | 0.14 | NO | -0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on October 1? | 1% | 27% | YES | 0.01 | NO | -0.01 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on October 1? | 0% | 18% | YES | 0.00 | NO | -0.00 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 1? | 4% | 29% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-30 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 1? | 60% | 37% | NO | 0.41 | YES | -0.42 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? | 43% | 6% | NO | 0.61 | NO | +0.38 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 30? | 30% | 8% | NO | 0.70 | YES | -0.71 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30? | 37% | 20% | NO | 0.64 | NO | +0.35 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 30? | 16% | 29% | YES | 0.17 | NO | -0.18 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 30? | 5% | 24% | YES | 0.06 | NO | -0.06 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 30? | 44% | 17% | NO | 0.57 | YES | -0.58 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 30? | 53% | 39% | NO | 0.48 | NO | +0.51 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 30? | 0% | 32% | YES | 0.00 | NO | -0.00 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 30? | 16% | 28% | YES | 0.16 | NO | -0.17 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 30? | 31% | 19% | NO | 0.70 | NO | +0.29 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 30? | 2% | 14% | YES | 0.02 | NO | -0.02 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 30? | 21% | 41% | YES | 0.23 | YES | +0.76 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30? | 24% | 8% | NO | 0.77 | NO | +0.22 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or below on September 30? | 1% | 21% | YES | 0.01 | NO | -0.01 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 30? | 8% | 52% | YES | 0.08 | NO | -0.08 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 30? | 40% | 2% | NO | 0.60 | NO | +0.39 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 30? | 24% | 0% | NO | 0.77 | NO | +0.22 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 30? | 50% | 32% | NO | 0.51 | NO | +0.48 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on September 30? | 4% | 22% | YES | 0.06 | NO | -0.06 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 31°C on September 30? | 14% | 27% | YES | 0.14 | NO | -0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 33°C on September 30? | 29% | 10% | NO | 0.73 | YES | -0.74 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 34°C on September 30? | 25% | 3% | NO | 0.77 | NO | +0.22 $ |
| 2026-09-29 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 30? | 52% | 37% | NO | 0.49 | YES | -0.50 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026? | 13% | 2% | NO | 0.87 | NO | +0.12 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 💵 Экономика | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30? | 93% | 2% | NO | 0.07 | YES | -0.08 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? | 20% | 3% | NO | 0.83 | NO | +0.16 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 💵 Экономика | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? | 2% | 14% | YES | 0.03 | NO | -0.03 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 💵 Экономика | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30? | 93% | 79% | NO | 0.07 | YES | -0.08 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? | 26% | 7% | NO | 0.82 | NO | +0.17 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 29? | 30% | 45% | YES | 0.30 | NO | -0.31 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 29? | 61% | 46% | NO | 0.40 | YES | -0.41 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? | 19% | 36% | YES | 0.20 | NO | -0.21 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 29? | 12% | 51% | YES | 0.13 | NO | -0.14 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29? | 44% | 28% | NO | 0.56 | YES | -0.57 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 29? | 38% | 16% | NO | 0.63 | NO | +0.36 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 29? | 2% | 36% | YES | 0.03 | NO | -0.03 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 29? | 53% | 21% | NO | 0.48 | YES | -0.49 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29? | 22% | 9% | NO | 0.79 | NO | +0.20 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 29? | 4% | 16% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 29? | 32% | 19% | NO | 0.69 | NO | +0.30 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 29? | 54% | 35% | NO | 0.47 | NO | +0.52 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 29? | 6% | 19% | YES | 0.08 | YES | +0.92 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29? | 29% | 15% | NO | 0.72 | NO | +0.27 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 29? | 4% | 17% | YES | 0.04 | NO | -0.04 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 29? | 14% | 27% | YES | 0.14 | NO | -0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-28 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 29? | 40% | 23% | NO | 0.61 | NO | +0.38 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026? | 21% | 2% | NO | 0.87 | NO | +0.13 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | 34% | 17% | NO | 0.68 | YES | -0.69 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 70% | 85% | YES | 0.71 | YES | +0.29 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 28% | 13% | NO | 0.73 | NO | +0.27 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026? | 0% | 15% | YES | 0.00 | NO | -0.00 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? | 9% | 26% | YES | 0.10 | NO | -0.11 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August? | 20% | 6% | NO | 0.81 | NO | +0.18 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026? | 21% | 1% | NO | 0.87 | NO | +0.13 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | 34% | 13% | NO | 0.67 | YES | -0.68 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? | 24% | 79% | YES | 0.27 | NO | -0.28 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28? | 40% | 29% | NO | 0.60 | NO | +0.39 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28? | 48% | 35% | NO | 0.53 | YES | -0.54 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 28? | 36% | 17% | NO | 0.66 | NO | +0.33 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 28? | 2% | 20% | YES | 0.03 | NO | -0.03 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 28? | 16% | 32% | YES | 0.17 | NO | -0.18 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 28? | 37% | 16% | NO | 0.64 | NO | +0.35 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on September 28? | 19% | 36% | YES | 0.20 | YES | +0.79 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on September 28? | 64% | 27% | NO | 0.36 | NO | +0.63 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 28? | 15% | 34% | YES | 0.15 | NO | -0.16 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 28? | 41% | 15% | NO | 0.60 | NO | +0.39 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on September 28? | 44% | 63% | YES | 0.44 | NO | -0.45 $ |
| 2026-09-27 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 28? | 48% | 28% | NO | 0.53 | YES | -0.54 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | 63% | 95% | YES | 0.75 | YES | +0.24 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 58% | 81% | YES | 0.64 | YES | +0.36 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 36% | 16% | NO | 0.65 | NO | +0.35 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 62% | 75% | YES | 0.64 | YES | +0.36 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 37% | 20% | NO | 0.64 | NO | +0.36 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? | 4% | 26% | YES | 0.07 | NO | -0.07 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in August? | 4% | 31% | YES | 0.06 | NO | -0.06 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August? | 19% | 7% | NO | 0.82 | NO | +0.17 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in August? | 15% | 3% | NO | 0.86 | NO | +0.13 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September? | 34% | 6% | NO | 0.68 | NO | +0.31 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September? | 22% | 39% | YES | 0.23 | NO | -0.24 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in September? | 2% | 20% | YES | 0.03 | NO | -0.03 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | 34% | 18% | NO | 0.67 | NO | +0.32 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 💵 Экономика | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30? | 61% | 77% | YES | 0.62 | YES | +0.37 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? | 1% | 22% | YES | 0.01 | NO | -0.01 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | 67% | 91% | YES | 0.68 | YES | +0.31 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | 18% | 2% | NO | 0.83 | NO | +0.16 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 27? | 44% | 2% | NO | 0.60 | NO | +0.39 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 27? | 47% | 66% | YES | 0.49 | YES | +0.50 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 27? | 2% | 31% | YES | 0.03 | NO | -0.03 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 27? | 42% | 20% | NO | 0.59 | YES | -0.60 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 27? | 4% | 24% | YES | 0.06 | NO | -0.06 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 27? | 1% | 19% | YES | 0.01 | NO | -0.01 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 27? | 2% | 51% | YES | 0.02 | NO | -0.02 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 27? | 48% | 24% | NO | 0.52 | YES | -0.53 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 27? | 31% | 1% | NO | 0.70 | NO | +0.29 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 27? | 24% | 39% | YES | 0.25 | YES | +0.74 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on September 27? | 34% | 17% | NO | 0.66 | NO | +0.33 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 27? | 14% | 34% | YES | 0.15 | NO | -0.16 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 27? | 38% | 22% | NO | 0.63 | YES | -0.64 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 27? | 34% | 14% | NO | 0.67 | NO | +0.32 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 27? | 4% | 25% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 27? | 0% | 11% | YES | 0.01 | NO | -0.01 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 62% | 80% | YES | 0.63 | YES | +0.37 $ |
| 2026-09-26 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026? | 38% | 17% | NO | 0.64 | NO | +0.36 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | 65% | 94% | YES | 0.66 | YES | +0.33 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | 18% | 1% | NO | 0.84 | NO | +0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026? | 0% | 21% | YES | 0.00 | NO | -0.00 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026? | 18% | 4% | NO | 0.84 | NO | +0.16 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 💵 Экономика | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | 38% | 13% | NO | 0.66 | NO | +0.33 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 💵 Экономика | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30? | 53% | 83% | YES | 0.57 | YES | +0.42 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌍 Геополитика | Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election? | 89% | 45% | NO | 0.12 | YES | -0.12 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 💵 Экономика | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30? | 20% | 2% | NO | 0.85 | NO | +0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August? | 24% | 5% | NO | 0.77 | NO | +0.22 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 💵 Экономика | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in August? | 16% | 1% | NO | 0.85 | NO | +0.14 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026? | 18% | 2% | NO | 0.85 | NO | +0.14 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🎬 Культура и техно | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | 69% | 96% | YES | 0.72 | YES | +0.27 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 26? | 4% | 25% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 26? | 57% | 30% | NO | 0.44 | YES | -0.45 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 26? | 4% | 21% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 26? | 18% | 47% | YES | 0.19 | NO | -0.20 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 26? | 33% | 7% | NO | 0.68 | YES | -0.69 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 26? | 8% | 24% | YES | 0.11 | NO | -0.11 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 26? | 12% | 44% | YES | 0.13 | YES | +0.86 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 26? | 66% | 32% | NO | 0.35 | NO | +0.64 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 26? | 18% | 0% | NO | 0.84 | NO | +0.15 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or below on September 26? | 4% | 16% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 26? | 18% | 5% | NO | 0.82 | NO | +0.17 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 26? | 4% | 16% | YES | 0.05 | NO | -0.05 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 26? | 52% | 71% | YES | 0.52 | NO | -0.53 $ |
| 2026-09-25 | 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 26? | 37% | 12% | NO | 0.64 | YES | -0.65 $ |
Открытые сигналы (последний прогноз по рынку)
| Тема | Рынок | Рынок | Мы | Сторона | Преимущество после комиссии, п.п. | ⏳ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2? | 100% | 28% | NO | 72 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 2? | 100% | 34% | NO | 66 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 2? | 58% | 16% | NO | 40 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌍 Геополитика | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 47% | 20% | NO | 27 | 2026-10-28 |
| 💵 Экономика | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | 72% | 37% | NO | 27 | 2026-10-21 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 2? | 36% | 13% | NO | 22 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 2? | 5% | 28% | YES | 22 | 2026-10-02 |
| 💵 Экономика | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 11% | 32% | YES | 20 | 2026-10-30 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 2? | 9% | 29% | YES | 18 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 3? | 32% | 14% | NO | 16 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 3? | 18% | 35% | YES | 16 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 3? | 44% | 26% | NO | 16 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 3? | 15% | 32% | YES | 16 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 2? | 2% | 19% | YES | 16 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 3? | 1% | 16% | YES | 16 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 3? | 50% | 31% | NO | 15 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 2? | 1% | 17% | YES | 15 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🏛 Политика | Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 88% | 70% | NO | 15 | 2026-10-05 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 3? | 44% | 27% | NO | 15 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🏛 Политика | Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 8% | 23% | YES | 14 | 2026-10-05 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 2? | 2% | 16% | YES | 14 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 3? | 46% | 31% | NO | 12 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 2? | 44% | 29% | NO | 12 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 3? | 30% | 17% | NO | 11 | 2026-10-03 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on October 2? | 2% | 14% | YES | 11 | 2026-10-02 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 3? | 14% | 2% | NO | 11 | 2026-10-03 |
| 💵 Экономика | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? | 14% | 27% | YES | 11 | 2026-10-30 |
| 🌦 Погода | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 2? | 26% | 13% | NO | 11 | 2026-10-02 |
Прогоны и отпечатки
| Дата | Прогнозов | SHA-256 | CSV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 14:03 UTC | 27 | a119a1f3ae953c0edf3820f79d0001bb57ec4c4954f8be92ff65a038864a017c | CSV |
| 2026-10-02 06:03 UTC | 50 | e825e952bf415a1e82f3630c9771cdb08d79b1a90bd7196f9a740988464dd7b6 | CSV |
| 2026-10-01 14:02 UTC | 68 | 1b9124ccfb32590714897114b95864d2089b0bf9e9114d6feefac9a14d8b9a1b | CSV |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC | 156 | 112be62e2b841b6f3cec2330282d4d27a9125738d7f92d2e1a54c155f91e2a2f | CSV |
| 2026-09-30 14:02 UTC | 28 | e611c26fbc4aaf922b190c92b51364d6d9913f49917caecd357693242441b298 | CSV |
| 2026-09-30 06:02 UTC | 134 | 35f1b2d3cf17106d0ce00e43c24b8fffbf9308e25e446ffc72be4694ba6567aa | CSV |
| 2026-09-29 14:03 UTC | 25 | 068e6d0a59b9dd261801c379721ab2530521f2ea617a5faef6f62953b6a01210 | CSV |
| 2026-09-29 06:05 UTC | 151 | 38155b4941613678d2cfac975dda490882db2006a79edeac56f69cfb530a0bc6 | CSV |
| 2026-09-28 14:01 UTC | 51 | 2ac8b10a2b14d165aad470a42f5584d55b52498b2af9f09cd215a69f82d177f8 | CSV |
| 2026-09-28 06:04 UTC | 160 | 76fd11e59c463cd32a5be84e7730ef43f6302a74c10b14a6c1c5e92c388f7d8b | CSV |
| 2026-09-27 14:03 UTC | 37 | da9651338a3b89a86437dc2fe35d8dc203fb974d596ba1eb6427a511a0e8d6e5 | CSV |
| 2026-09-27 06:04 UTC | 164 | 6fc12745c496e30162dd275cb55ea20be2ad5d08425d3d38db2d8e04054dd6e3 | CSV |
| 2026-09-26 14:03 UTC | 39 | 9c17831066ec7c274f074b09ccf572e42990fc8b5aab229682acd2a57670ecad | CSV |
| 2026-09-26 06:08 UTC | 152 | ce3ed3c2126fb0dbd7572509048422cc748b4cde6884c96cbd870c0922f9af1c | CSV |
| 2026-09-26 06:01 UTC | 18 | 1dc698e2c6485ef1c4baf01f96f15f1ca90b2d036c5fd39755a28760ff2f12c2 | CSV |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 UTC | 33 | aa9026b5deb13161f8d85c59bb55c4a0d2237b312aebcda6feb82af9d824f022 | CSV |
| 2026-09-25 06:02 UTC | 144 | a02e9ec7e4d0b953fd9cbf68fa65b160212ad59417c8fde93afa1b737c29d913 | CSV |
| 2026-09-24 14:09 UTC | 19 | 651bf756b56c6be6e206075107b6999dcc972b06f3973324309faa15f557a664 | CSV |
| 2026-09-24 06:03 UTC | 145 | 1c21b08fd3bf12d3ea2763ad7d941f9fa061ed1d5dd3291b3a6f6536811f574d | CSV |
| 2026-09-24 05:35 UTC | 152 | eb5f981d71a1b14099e07c1a98bb725412cc41946415ce44a25c65125cd3e881 | CSV |
| 2026-09-23 22:39 UTC | 44 | 04386cd168fb0252c1cbfd5455a86a21f0d4bfdc6e7bea12034677aefc392611 | CSV |